Agriculture accounted for nearly 20% of South Africa’s exports during the fourth quarter of last year, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) thinktank has highlighted, in its latest brief report, “Perspectives on agricultural trade (fourth quarter 2024)”. However, the country’s agricultural exports were stagnant in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, there being an only 0.2% increase in the former period, compared with the latter. 

Over the six years starting in 2019, the value of South African agricultural exports had risen from R39-billion to R59-billion. The BFAP pointed out that this was equivalent to an average annual growth of 9%. The stagnation between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024 was put down to the drought that had affected summer crop production, and, in some provinces, the continued presence of animal diseases.

The country also imported agricultural products. Agricultural imports increased by 13% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024. This increase in imports caused the country’s agricultural trade surplus to decrease by 18% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024. However, as quarterly agricultural imports remained below R40-billion over the past six years (they totalled R38-billion in Q4 2024)  South Africa remained a net exporter of agricultural products.

Five major trade partners account for more than 80% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. They were (from the biggest market to the smallest) the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the EU, the “BRIC-Plus” grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates), the UK and the US. SADC took almost 50% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. Exports to the BRIC-Plus group fell by -35% from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024. This drop was caused by decreased exports to China (down -20%), India (-34%) and Russia (-76%).  

South Africa’s top agricultural export product in Q4 2024 was fruit (mainly table grapes and berries), which was valued at R13.64-billion; this represented a 4.97% increase over the figure for Q4 2023. Next came beverages, valued at R8.28-billion (up 8.48%), then cereals (R5.72-billion, an increase of 4.02%) and processed fruit and vegetables (R4.52-billion, up 19.18%). Thereafter came food preparations (condiments, supplements, spices, ready-to-eat foods), which were valued at R3.16-billion (an increase of 7.91%), followed by fish products (R2.37-billion, up 21.96%), sugar products (R2.30-billion, a sharp drop of -41.36%), meat products (R2.16-billion, a surge of 40.59%, mainly to the Middle East), oilseeds (R1.84-billion, a fall of -55.99%, owing to drought) and processed cereals (R1.82-billion, an increase of 5.63%).

Regarding South Africa’s top agricultural imports, in the fourth quarter of 2024 first place was taken by cereals, with a value of R5.93-billion; this was a -9.52% decline compared with the fourth quarter of 2023. All the other main agricultural imports recorded increases over this period. Second in value to cereals were animal and vegetable oil imports, at R4.84-billion (+21.81%), followed by beverages (R3.41-billion, +3.55%), sugar products (R2.4-billion, +18.81%), food preparations (R2.03-billion, +22.86%), meat products (R2-billion, + 66.09%), coffee (R1.89-billion, +47.28%), processed fruit and vegetables (R1.81-billion, +11.62%), feed (R1.81-billion, +26.14%), and processed cereals (R1.33-billion, +0.66%).

“Looking ahead, the global environment remains uncertain and unpredictable due to the geopolitics of the new US administration and unresolved conflicts in major regions involving the main trade partners,” cautioned the BFAP. “These uncertainties include doubts around the extension of the [Africa Growth and Opportunities Act] beyond 2025 as well as conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. On the domestic front, animal diseases continue to undermine productivity and trade opportunities in the livestock subsector.”